Invite-only alpha
The most you should pay for a card. When we don’t know, we say so.
Sales-backed math with a ceiling on every buyable card. When the data underneath a number isn’t strong enough to defend it, we withhold the number and name the reason instead of filling the gap with a plausible guess.
Two cards, two answers
What honesty looks like
Same page, same math. When the underlying comps are strong, the ceiling reads in gold. When the sample is too thin to defend a number, the ceiling reads “—” with the reason next to it. Five distinct reasons the engine will hold back a figure, each one shown to the user.
Confident state
Enough sales, complete price ladder. The ceiling is a real number, the verdict pill sits in the buy family, and the trust box cites the sample size behind it.
Held-back state
Same layout, the ceiling reads “—”. The verdict pill sits in a muted tone and a subline names the specific reason. No fabricated figure, no hidden gap.
Sold prices from eBay via Card Hedger. Population data from GemRate. Search interest from Google Trends. We don’t collect or price cards ourselves — we read what the market already published.
Method, not magic
Four gates. Every buy verdict clears all of them.
A card that would trigger a Strong Buy verdict has passed each of these tests. When a card fails one, the verdict is not “maybe” — it’s the specific gate that failed.
Gem rate floor
The card’s share of graded copies hitting PSA 10 has to be at least 60%, and only when we have enough population data to defend that estimate.
Profit multiple
The projected PSA 10 net return has to clear a minimum multiple of your cost basis. Break-even isn’t enough — the projection has to cover a defensible margin.
PSA 9 safety
The second-best grading outcome can’t take you significantly below cost. A card whose PSA 9 exit is deeply negative doesn’t clear this gate, no matter how strong the PSA 10 return.
Liquidity ceiling
Cards without enough recent sales can’t reach the top verdict tier — even if the math would otherwise allow it. Thin markets get lower verdicts, on purpose.
Free by invite during alpha. $19.99 / month when public access opens. See what’s included →
Risk disclaimer
VaultAI publishes analytical figures derived from public sales data. These are not financial or investment advice. Sports card values fluctuate, past sales don’t predict future prices, and grading outcomes are not guaranteed. Any purchase or sale decision is yours; you are responsible for verifying prices, condition, authenticity, and grading estimates through your own channels before acting. Full risk disclosure →